Andrea Pozas-Loyo will work on a book project on authoritarian constitutionalism. She will explore whether and how constitutional provisions are enforced in authoritarian regimes. She will study these questions in the case of Mexico’s 1917 Constitution’s roles and enforcement mechanisms under the authoritarian ruling of the PRI (1929 to 2000). Mexico is a paradigmatic case of “authoritarian constitutionalism”: while the President was the cornerstone of a well-disciplined political party that controlled the three branches of government, he could not transform in an arbitrary fashion every constitutional article. In particular, during this period Article 83, which establishes a six-year non-renewable presidential term, was neither altered nor violated. Why couldn’t presidents with such extraordinary power change Article 83, nor violate it? What were the mechanisms through which this constitutional norm was enforced? Can we claim it as an instance of constitutional efficacy in a nondemocratic regime?
Pozas-Loyo is associate professor at the Institute of Legal Studies (IIJ) at the National University in Mexico (UNAM). Her research topics are constitutionalism, constitutional enforcement, and change. She has been working on the causes and effects of Mexico’s constitutional hyperreformism. Specifically, on the paradox that while it played a key role on the gradual and peaceful transition to democracy, it is now obstructing the consolidation of the rule of law.
Hana Ševčíková is a computational statistician who works on demographic, agent-based and other mechanistic models of social phenomena, and assessing the associated uncertainty. During her stay at CASBS, she will work on two projects: 1) on developing methods for projecting international migration, with an emphasis on the sex and age structure of both immigration and return migration; and 2) developing methodology for projecting probabilistic subnational total fertility rates and life expectancy at birth.
For the past six years, Ševčíková has been involved with a project carried out jointly by her group at the University of Washington and the United Nations to improve methodology for population projections by synthesizing demographic and modern statistical methods. One major issue that remains open is accounting for uncertainty about international migration in population projections. Statistically sound methodologies for subnational projections are of great interest to national and local governments for planning, policy and decision-making, and also as inputs for climate change, global health and other modeling. Other projects Ševčíková has been working on include agent-based models of land use for urban planning.
Ševčíková is a senior research scientist at the University of Washington. A list of her publications can be found here: http://www.stat.washington.edu/hana/.